BTC - Bitcoin sees Record Volume and the Death Cross proves contrarian yet again!

kingscrown 5 years ago

BTC will moon soonish

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jrcornel 5 years ago

I agree. I have been saying $20k by May of 2020 for a long time now. Looks like a better chance for that now then say a week ago.

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geekgirl 5 years ago

Haven’t heard of death cross before. Good to know. Thanks.

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edicted 5 years ago

The Golden cross is basically the opposite?
don't quote me.

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jrcornel 5 years ago

Yep.

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buggedout 5 years ago

Apparrently the Death Cross doesn't count if the 200 SMA is still rising. Check out this video on the subject.

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jrcornel 5 years ago

For most technical definitions of the pattern, that doesn't seem to matter. Though I agree back-testing using that data would probably make it less reliable.

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demotruk 5 years ago

I really wouldn't use CMC as a measure of volume. They take every exchange at their word for volume stats.

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jrcornel 5 years ago (edited)

Fair enough, though I would still speculate there was more real volume the other day than on any other day as well. Mostly because there is likely less fake volume now then say two years ago when bitcoin made its all time highs.

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https://www.forbes.com/sites/cbovaird/2019/03/22/95-of-reported-bitcoin-trading-volume-is-fake-says-bitwise/#4aa038896717

demotruk 5 years ago (edited)

Why would you think that volume was fake back then but less now? Back then exchanges were overloaded with people in a rush to buy Bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Today, there's almost no interest in Bitcoin or cryptocurrency.

Exchange web traffic is also way lower, according to Alexa. Binance was in top 200 sites worldwide in late 2017. Today it is far lower:

It was also only a few months ago that Bitwise report concluded volume on CMC was 95% fake.

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jrcornel 5 years ago (edited)

That report came out 7 months ago and that is actually part of the reason I believe it is harder now. CMC acknowledged the report and has beefed up it's reporting protocols. They even have a metric on their page now that says sort by reported vs adjusted volume. Not only that, but exchanges are looked at much more closely now then they were 2-3 years ago and it's more difficult to pull off shady practices then it was then just in general.

Traffic metrics could mean several things. For one, it likely mostly just applies to retail. The CME futures are much more robust then they were back then, by orders of magnitude. That volume likely came from somewhere and is much more likely to be institutional. Plus you have Bakkt and a couple other institutional side investment products/platforms showing increasing activity. It's very possible you could have a drop in retail interest and an increase in institutional interest that more than makes up the difference, and you likely wouldn't see that at the popular crypto exchanges.

Regarding google trends, again that is likely showing a drop of retail interest plus there is always the fact that once you search for something like bitcoin to understand what it is, there is less of a need to search for it again. Bitcoin is more well known now than at any point prior. It's on CNBC every single day and has been mentioned by the president, the treasury secretary, and the FED Chair all in the past several months.

There is no way of knowing for sure that the volume is 'more legit' now than say 2-3 years ago, but intuitively it seems very likely that it would be citing some of the reasons mentioned above.

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nickgrujic 5 years ago

seems to me the shorts got overrun lmao and i like it that way also lol
have a great day bud and i hope your weekend is looking good

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jrcornel 5 years ago

Yep, they most certainly did. Lot of margin shorts were liquidated at Bitmex on Friday.

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3 votes

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zacknorman97 5 years ago

This is a welcome sight for hodlers. When BTC dropped below 8K, I dared not to look at a chart.

I hope to see a higher uptrend soon enough, maybe bring cryptos back into a new bull run.

On other news; Bakkt also recorded new highs for volumes.

So, all in all, it's been good news these past few days.

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jrcornel 5 years ago

Yep, I saw that as well. I did a post on it the other day in fact. :)

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zacknorman97 5 years ago

Ah, yes you did. In fact I read it, enjoyed it, and upvoted :)

Keep it up with the informative posts!

Posted using Partiko Android

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elbrava 5 years ago

What about the reverse? Would that bullish signal also be a leading indicator and thus actually be a signal for a correction perhaps?

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jrcornel 5 years ago (edited)

Possibly. I think there needs to be a bit of context. As someone else mentioned, when the 200 MA is pointing up, the death cross tends to fail more often. That likely has to do with prices being in a longer term uptrend during the pullback. The inverse is probably true as well. The golden cross probably is a contrarian indicator more often when the 200 MA is pointing down during the cross...

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arcange 5 years ago

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jrcornel 5 years ago

Cool, thanks.

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3 votes

arcange 5 years ago

You're welcome @jrcornel

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diogosantos 5 years ago

Bearish signal or not, I'm putting BTC at $42K within the next few months, so...

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jrcornel 5 years ago

Can I sell you mine there right now? :)

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diogosantos 5 years ago

That would be an incredible move, with that money you could buy 5X more and enjoy the ride up 5X richer!! :D

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jrcornel 5 years ago

Does that mean we have a deal? :) Haha but yes it would be awesome to see.

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diogosantos 5 years ago

No deal, just because I´m still waiting for BTC to go a little lower before I do another big buy!

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jrcornel 5 years ago

What price are you looking for?

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diogosantos 5 years ago

Before this move up, I was expecting $6k, but now I´ll be happy to buy around $8K (not ideal, but it´s money that I just can´t have sitting in my bank if I have a great opportunity right in front of me).

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jrcornel 5 years ago

Yep. I never trade or invest in absolutes. I have learned that they rarely work out. I kept urging a friend of mine who was waiting for $6k to buy in at $8k and then at $7k.. but alas he did not. And now he missed the move up and won't buy at $9k either... sigh.

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joeparys 5 years ago

Looking forward to more good news like this ✅

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6 votes