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RE: German Bundesliga Kick Tipp - My MatchDay 11 Status

in German Soccer Cup15 days ago

Interesting to observe how the 'clash' of different betting strategies will turn out. :)

Of course with betting on favourites one will win more often, but in my opinion the real 'art' ist to find out which odds offer the highest value in relation to the probability of the chosen outcome.

If I for example know that the probability of the number "6" when rolling the dice is 1/6, then the fair odds a bookmaker should offer for that outcome should be 6.0 (of which of course he would subtract a certain percentage as bookmaker margin).
As soon as any sportsbook would offer for example odds of 6.5 for the appearance of a "6" I would immediately play that bet even if the probability to win would still be 1/6. Statistically I should then still lose five times out of six, but with the sixth bet I would win more than I paid for all five losses together (with an assumed stake of 1 Euro for each of the six bets I would statistically lose five times 1 euro before I once would win 5.5 euros, resulting in a plus of 50 cents every six bets in average).

I wish you good luck and am looking forward to see the results of the coming match days. :-)

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I really enjoy watching the different betting strategies play out and seeking out value. I have tried favorites and really wide odds and yeah you can't beat seeing those long odds ones come in. When you win a 100-1 bet, should you then skip betting for a while as the odds of winning another 100-1 so quickly are quite long?! lol

It is also amazing to see how often you might go without getting a 6 even though it should be one in 6. Somehow there is something magical about statistics and probability.

Congrats on your first place, you are really crushing it at the top and I wish you a good success for the rest of the season, it has been a fun one so far! 😀

When you win a 100-1 bet, should you then skip betting for a while as the odds of winning another 100-1 so quickly are quite long?! lol

As you also know, winning a certain bet (even if probability might have been very low) doesn't influence the probabilities of the winning chances of the following bets. :-)

It is also amazing to see how often you might go without getting a 6 ...

Yes, if the sample of bets is not big enough then 'strange' things might happen. :)