Nope, it ain't gonna be in my opinion and it is my opinion that drives my behavior - Not your opinion.
Seems a little strong to call this a guide then.
as it allows for investment without risking the capital at all.
I honestly don't know where this belief originated, but I feel like it gives people the wrong idea of guaranteed ROI without any "work" required to underpin that value. There are actions that undermine network growth but generate positive ROI. If the asset decreases in value due to network decay, you might have a guaranteed increase in the amount of the asset, but not necessarily the monetary value of asset. There is always risk there. If people stop using something, it loses value regardless of how scarce it is. So, a long as any asset has a means of abandonment (selling) then there is always a risk from the monetary perspective.
Yes, those top 50 accounts are going to be enormous and users like @theycallmedan are going to have so much wealth that they won't know what to do with but, do they will.
There a lot of projection and a lot of certainty in this statement. I'm not going to say that this outcome is never going to happen, but alternatively the case where the top 50 accounts having a lot of tokens that leave them with a modest, yet disappointing amount of value isn't out of the realm of possibility either. But I get projection. I used to do it a lot too back in 2017 and the start of 2018.
and the investment potential is 1 billion out of the pool a year.
Why should we care about future money that is printed and not about that which currently exists? I mean receiving rewards is great and all, but this guide is focusing on the inflation. Shouldn't we be focus on the benefits of the Steem already in existence? Shouldn't we speak praise to the old Steem already allocated and speak of it in terms independent of its relationship to future Steem? I feel like if we can't do that, then Steem itself isn't money, but a broken mechanism that fishes for fresh tokens without having a good reason for stale tokens beyond inflation.
But, you might look at the price now, the community now, the interfaces now and the arguments now ... And miss out on the future.
Steem might have more competition in the future as well. We can't assume that Steem holds a monopolistic position in its current blockchain niche forever. Competition means the future is bright, but the jury is still out whether Steem is still leading the pack then. I still hold my position simply due to the asymmetric upside and the fact that I haven't invested a single cent into the blockchain, only my time. I feel like that is the more prudent position in hedging against the risk and the network stagnation of the past year or so.
Feeling bullish?
Not really. I still think we're in the equilibrium finding process. The price will go up when more people start using the Steem network.