Which coins will do good and which coins will end up worth nothing.

Ye age old question :)

I think you are right, most will die. The ones that will survive are those which have some use case and a community willing to use them. Which is why I think Steem has legs.

I actually thnik crowdfunding is going to be a very strong usecase on Steem, especially through delegations and voting for shares. So will microloans. Lots of little economic possibilities that just need a large enough user base to get off the ground